Counterfactual reasoning: A logical fallacy?

You must have heard the counterfactual argument a thousand times: if the program had not occurred, the effect would not have occurred as well.  Let us dissect the logical form of the argument.

In symbolic logic, the counterfactual argument has this structure:
If Program X is implemented, then Y happens (X ⊃ Y)
Program X is not implemented (~X)
Therefore, Y does not happen. (∴ ~Y)

This reasoning is fallacious.  It has even a name which is denying the antecedent.   Michael Scriven calls this overdetermination in his debate with Tom Cook.  This is a logical fallacy because even if X is false (~X), Y can be true (~~Y).  As can be seen in the truth table below, a false antecedent (X) always yields a true logical relationship (X ⊃ Y) regardless of the value of the consequent (Y).

Truth Table

X	Y	X ⊃ Y
T	T	T
T	F	F
F	T	T
F	F	T

Why is this so? Because in real world, it is not only Program X that produces Y.  Other programs or causes can produce similar result. Suppose a donor claimed that because of the financial assistance to farmers, the household income of program beneficiaries increased.  This reasoning failed to consider that the household income will increase even without the financial assistance because of other contributing factors such as improving economy, better weather conditions, other donors, etc.

Counterfactual, clone, match and other similar terms

A couple of weeks ago, I was invited by the ASEAN Training Center on Preventive Drug Education to train them on Impact Evaluation as I was informed that the trend on this area is the use of randomized control trial (RCT) as the gold standard for evaluation design.  I went beyond that as I found myself talking also about various quasi-experimental methods as these suffices in the event that RCT is not viable or feasible design.

I started my talk with the concept of counterfactual as this is an indispensable element of impact estimation.  Because the audience was relatively new to monitoring and evaluation, I use layman's terms so that the notion of counterfactual is understood.  Among the words close to the sense of counterfactual are the following:

Control Group
Non-beneficiary
What if situation
Status Quo
Clone
Twin
Match
Equivalent
Nearest Neighbor
Comparison Group
Similar
Identical
Look-alike

Can you think of other words for counterfactual?